CTS Is Growing!

The popularity of CTS has been overwhelming. In response to the positive feedback we have received, CTS is proud to announce that we have teamed up with an agency to upgrade from a simple blog to a professionally built website. You can now visit www.coverinthespread.com for our latest blog posts, recommended articles, fan interaction and most importantly our premium pick services. We have also added a new CTS team member (another Richard) who will be contributing a great deal on all levels. Our mission is to entertain sports fans with a variety of blog posts on current events in the sports world, allow fans to interact by suggesting topics and commenting on others, and most importantly to help our members beat their bookie!

All of our readers can enjoy reading the blog posts, recommended articles, and other fan interaction CTS has to offer for free! CTS members will enjoy our research-based game selections and detailed analysis at prices well below the market rates.

CTS has selected games with a better than 65% winning percentage thus far this season, and has only experienced one losing weekend! Because we enjoy researching the games and want to save you time and make you money, we can offer you our selections at a price well below the market rates.  We look forward to you joining our winning team and feel free to email us at coverinthespread@gmail.com anytime!

A Change Will Do You Goodell?

Roger Goodell, the 18 Game Regular Season, and the Record Books

The NFL is underway and in full stride yet again. Osi Umenyiora, Tom Brady, and yes, even Michael Vick and Brett Favre are back too. While these are the top stories of the 2009 season, there is one story that has not received much coverage. At the NFL owners meeting this March, Roger Goodell brought up the subject of expanding the regular season to seventeen or eighteen games. This would not take place until, at the earliest and most likely, the 2011 season. Before all of this happens though, the NFL has to reach a new collective bargaining agreement with the players union and also discuss it with the owners and television networks.

Roger Goodell wants to leave his mark on the NFL. He wants a legacy as NFL commissioner. He began his tenure as NFL commissioner being an enforcer. Goodell wanted to clean up the image of the league and did that by levying lofty suspensions against players such as Adam Jones, Chris Henry, Tank Johnson, Plaxico Burress, Donte’ Stallworth, and Michael Vick. All of these players deserved some sort of punishment and Goodell made sure these players would pay for their actions. Goodell was so serious about cleaning up the league that he even fined Bill Belichik half a million dollars and took away a 2009 first round draft pick from the New England Patriots for the infamous “spygate” incident.

Roger Goodell quickly made his point to the entire league that there was a new sheriff in town and that NFL players would be role models or would be unemployed. Players, and even coaches and owners alike would be held accountable for their actions on and off the field. Roger Goodell had made an example of many players and has now left his mark as an enforcer just like he wanted to. While I applaud Goodell for his efforts in cleaning up the most popular sports league in North America, I fault him for trying to be this revolutionary commissioner. As commissioner, your job is to oversee the league and make sure everything is successful and running smoothly. Pretty much a commissioner is just one big supervisor. Therefore, being a supervisor, you should leave no more than one mark on your league. Look at Bud Selig for example. He is a terrible commissioner for Major League Baseball and has left four huge marks on the game. The one good mark Selig left on the MLB is the addition of the Wild Card. His other three marks are his poor handlings of the Pete Rose situation, the players’ strike in 1994, and the steroids era. David Stern left one mark on the NBA and that was his expansion of the game to the rest of the world. By adding most likely two more games, Goodell adds risky chapters to a short legacy that, so far, has been pretty good.

Goodell sees an eighteen game schedule as two more chances to put his league on a grand stage. I guess games in London and Toronto were not good enough. He sees the preseason as meaningless and thinks that four games are just too much. Goodell also sees an opportunity for more money from NBC, FOX, ESPN, and the NFL Network. Goodell also sees, especially in small markets, greater attendance, therefore more money. Since many small market teams do not get big numbers in preseason, Goodell believes these two extra ball games (which would mean one home game) would generate enough revenue to help these small markets and the NFL in general.

While all of these are positives, what could the negatives be? The negatives are much larger in numbers than the positives. First of all, what is play in September going to look like? Look at Peyton Manning last year. Manning missed the entire 2008 preseason because of a knee injury. In his first three starts back, Manning was terrible and the Colts got off to a 1-2 start. Manning even admitted that he was not in rhythm because he could not get his timing down during the preseason. Once Manning got those three games under his belt and regained his timing, he went on to lead the Colts to an 11-2 record down the stretch and win his third MVP award.

Sloppy play in September is only one problem. What about the Super Bowl? Will the nation’s biggest football game really be held in mid to late February? And what about the players? Goodell says he plans to pay the players the same as ever. The players want eighteen game checks if they play eighteen games. Goodell says because the players have two fewer preseason games, that their salaries will remain the same.

Another negative for the players is career length. At eighteen games a year over five years, that would be ten extra full-length football games these players would have to play. That is around twenty games per full career. Twenty games is more than a full season. This means that you will shorten long careers by more than a full year. Also, with all of the lawsuits and grievances being filed by ex-players against the NFL for health problems, does the NFL really want to put these men out there for two more games at the end of the season when their bodies are at their weakest? This will just create injuries and the fans will not be able to see all of the superstars in the postseason because their favorite player was injured in week 19.

I believe the biggest reason not to change the season to seventeen or eighteen games is the single season records. Yes, the regular season was changed from 14 games to 16 games in 1978 and I know that affected many records. But since 1978, the biggest single season records have been set. The rushing record set by Eric Dickerson in 1984 with the L.A. Rams, the passing record set by Dan Marino that same year with the Miami Dolphins in 1984, and the touchdown passes record set by Tom Brady in 2007 with the New England Patriots. In 1978, sacks were not even counted as an official stat so I think it is fine to start the single season record books in 1978. Each one of these records would be shattered immediately (probably by Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson) if the season went to eighteen games, and the NFL record book would start to become as false as baseball’s is now. And yes, I keep saying eighteen instead of seventeen or eighteen because there is no way the NFL owners would allow their team to play 8 home games and 9 road games while their division rival has the opposite. And yes, I keep saying single season and not career because careers will not last as long with eighteen games.

Roger Goodell has done a fabulous job as NFL commissioner to date. If this proposal is passed at the owners meeting and passed by the players union in May of 2010, he will become a Bud Selig. Goodell saw that players and other NFL employees needed to be held accountable for their behavior off the field. By doing this he fixed what needed to be fixed in the NFL. Now everything is fixed. Nothing is broken. So if it ain’t broke, why fix it? Goodell needs to ask himself this question.

-scf

CTS Pickin' Winners On the Reg

(CTS 19-10-1 YTD--mfb 7-3; scf 8-6-1; rw 6-1)

NCAA

Miami (-7) at Wake Forest

For the third week in a row we are picking the Miami Hurricanes.  They lost a close one in overtime last week to visiting Clemson, and will be looking to make a statement that they are still the team to beat in the ACC.  The fact that Wake Forest is just plain bad helps their cause.  Two weeks ago the Demon Deacons were smoked by Clemson (38-3), and they followed that up with a 13-10 loss at Navy.  The only reason this line is so low is the fact that Wake has won 4 in a row at home.  None of the previous opponents were as talented and fast and the Canes.

Take Miami minus the Points -mfb

 

NC State at Florida State (-9.5)

Christian Ponder and the FSU offense really showed me something last Thursday night at North Carolina.  They came back from a huge deficit in the first half to score 30 on a very good defense.  This is more impressive to me after watching UNC shut down Tyrod and Virginia Tech this week.  NC State has been a big disappointment in the ACC this year.  They come in at 3-4 on the season, with losses in their last three games to Wake (30-24), Duke (49-28 at home), and Boston College (52-20).  They give up 28 points a game so you know that FSU is going to put up some points. The Seminoles have all the talent in the world, but they just haven’t been able to get it all together.  Penalties and turnovers have plagued this team all year long.  I expect them to carry the momentum from their come from behind victory last week and get a blowout win for Bobby Bowden.

Take the Noles minus the points -mfb

 

Ole Miss (-4) at Auburn

Auburn has looked like the team we expected them to be in the last 3 games with losses to Arkansas, Kentucky, and LSU after starting the season a perfect 5-0.  The offense has slowed down, and the defense has been getting embarrassed all year long.  Ole Miss has been inconsistent at times, but has been playing well since the loss to Alabama 3 weeks ago.  They have a defense that could be even better than the LSU defense that smothered Auburn this past weekend.  When Chris Todd plays well, the Auburn offense plays well.  I can assure you that Greg Hardy and the rest of the talented Ole Miss defensive front will make sure that doesn’t happen.  Look for the Rebels to have no trouble with Auburn on the road.

Take Ole Miss minus the Points -mfb 

 

Georgia vs. Florida (N) O/U 48.5

The Florida Gators have arguably the best defense in the country. They have held their opponents to an average of 10 points a game. The Gators defense will be very motivated for this rivalry game, and to prove those wrong who are saying they didn’t deserve to beat MSU and Arkansas. Concerning the other side of the ball, Florida has struggled to find a vertical threat this season and has done the majority of their damage on the ground. UGA has played two defenses similar to Florida (yet not as talented) in UT and LSU and only managed to put up 19 and 13 respectively. UGA won’t be able to move the ball on the Gators and Tebow and co. will control the game on the ground.

Take the under –rw

 

Georgia Tech (-12) at Vandy

This is another repeat pick. How could you not take GT? They are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, winning their last 5 and averaging almost 40 points throughout the streak. Vanderbilt is on the other end of the spectrum. They have lost four in a row giving up 160+ yards a game on the ground. I normally hesitate laying this many points on the road, but home field advantage means nothing except maybe a close first quarter. GT will grind Vandy down and pull away in the second half to easily cover the 12.

Take GT minus the 12 -rw

 

NFL

NY Giants (pick em) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Giants have lost their last two and are looking to rebound against a heavily overrated Philly squad. In their last two games the Eagles have looked less than impressive. Two weeks ago, they were embarrassed by the worst team in all of pro sports (Raiders), and last week they were lucky to beat the Redskins in the manner they did. If you take away two blown up plays involving DeSean Jackson, the pathetic Redskins offense actually outgained the Eagles. Normally home-field advantage is crucial, especially between division rivals, but the G men are 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games on the road and 19-4 SU on the road in their last 23. This line has fluctuated a good bit this week so get it quick.

Take the Giants –rw

 

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)

Tony Romo is playing great and the Cowboys offense is finally healthy again with Felix Jones and Roy Williams back in the lineup. The Cowboys will certainly put up points in this game against a Seattle defense who lost its’ best player Lofa Totupu for the season. Both of these teams have very similar rosters to last year with the exceptions of the receivers T.J. Houshamanzadeh, and that T.O. guy, and Dallas was able to blow out Seattle last year 34-9. Expect more of the same this year. Dallas rolls.

Take Dallas minus the points -scf

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans

I love this pick. Jacksonville is getting points against a team that they have beaten and will beat again. The Jags were able to beat the winless Titans by 20 just four weeks ago and I do not think Vince Young will make a difference at all. Look for the Titans offense to try for the home run all day from Chris Johnson. He may break one for six, but no more than that. Jaguars win an ugly one 23-13.

Take Jax plus the points -scf

 

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) at New York Jets

Miami won the previous meeting in a thriller against a hot Jets team that really had no business being a part of that game. Not much has changed since that game besides the fact that the Jets’ monster plug in the middle Kris Jenkins is now out for the season. That is good news for Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and company. Just like the Jags, Dolphins won’t need the points either. Dolphins 24-20.

Take Miami plus the points -scf

 

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts, O/U 44.5

Yep, Peyton is still hot after blitzing the Rams last week and the Colts return home to do more of the same to the 49ers. The 49ers got a spark last week from Alex Smith who came in the game in the second half of a 24-21 loss to Houston to throw for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns. Michael Crabtree has a game under his belt and tight end Vernon Davis is playing the best football of his young career for the 49ers. Expect the 49ers to score about 20 or 21 in a 7-10 point loss.

Take the over -scf

 

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, O/U 44

The Giants have lost two in row and will come in hungry for a win against their division rival. The Eagles need the game just as badly with a three-way tie atop the NFC East in the loss column. These two offenses, respectively, are sixth and seventh in the NFL in scoring and these games have always had points in the past. Expect a high scoring game with the Giants winning on the road.

Take the over - scf

The Big 3, Who Should Be #1

The Big 3, Who Should Be #1?

Over the past few weeks there has been much debate over who the best college football team is in 2009.  Most believe that it would be between the top 3 teams in the nation: Florida, Alabama, and Texas.  You could make an argument for Iowa, USC, Boise St, TCU, or Cincinnati, but in my mind it is between the 3 teams that control their own destiny. In order to properly discuss who should be #1, a detailed analysis must be done on what each team (Florida, Alabama, and Texas) has accomplished to this point. 

Florida:

Florida came into this season with the highest of expectations.  People were saying they would turn out to be one of the greatest college football teams ever, along with the Nebraska teams in ’71 and ’95 and Miami in ’01.  And to be honest I didn’t disagree.  Lets take a look at what we knew about the Gators coming into the season: (1) Tim Tebow still plays there, (2) They return every player from their two-deep on a defense that ranked 9^th in the country last year, and (3) Tim Tebow still plays there.  I figured as much media attention as Tebow gets that it would be appropriate to mention him twice.  He was the first player to win the Heisman Trophy as a sophomore, and captains what is commonly perceived to be the most explosive offense in college football.

Now I will discuss what we have seen this year from Florida.  Although they are undefeated, they have not played up to the  “Team of the Century” expectations.  Offensively, they look to have a big hole at wide receiver.  Tight-End Aaron Hernandez leads the team in receiving, so it appears as though the team is missing Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy a little more than expected.  The offense just doesn’t seem to have the same dominant swagger as they did coming down the stretch last year.  Keep in mind they weren’t all that impressive before the Ole Miss loss last year and then the infamous Tebow speech (where he cried on national television) motivated them to humiliate opposing defenses for the rest of the year.  Although the season is half over, we could still see a similar event spark the Gators back into 2008 form. 

The defense has been nothing short of spectacular to this point.  Led by All-American linebacker Brandon Spikes, Florida has held its opponents to a combined 71 points (10.1 pts/game).  This is a bit misleading, however, because Florida has competed against only one team that possesses a good offense in Arkansas, and they needed a last second field goal and some help from the officials to win that game.  They have played Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, and Mississippi State, which rank 6^th, 9^th, 10^th, and 8^th respectively in the SEC in offensive production.  Not to mention the mighty offenses of Charleston Southern and Troy.  Unless the Gators find some way to open up the vertical passing attack and make this offense multi-dimensional, they may have some serious trouble with some teams standing in between them and Pasadena (@South Carolina, SEC Championship).

Alabama:

Alabama was undefeated during the regular season of 2008, but suffered a close loss to Florida in the SEC Championship, and then an embarrassing defeat to Utah in the Sugar Bowl.  Despite the poor 2008 finish, the Tide was ranked #5 in the country to start the year.  They were expected to have a conservative offense combined with a suffocating defense. 

Alabama had to break in a new starting quarterback (Greg McElroy), running back (Mark Ingram), and three linemen (James Carpenter, William Vlachos, and Barrett Jones) on the offensive side of the ball.  We thought that we would see a similar offense to 2008 by focusing on the ground game with a handful of talented running backs and asking the quarterback to simply “manage” the game.  The first five weeks of the season showed the Tide in a different form.  They were explosive on offense, with McElroy being mentioned along with the Heisman Trophy, an award that has never been won by an Alabama player.  The last three weeks, however, the offense has gone back to the run-first, predictable offense that we expected.  McElroy has been inconsistent, and it seems as though the coaches have lost a little faith in him to throw the deep ball.  They have played three very good defenses in a row, but the offense will need to prove they can perform under more difficult circumstances.  A big positive is that Mark Ingram has established himself as one of the top backs in the nation, but if Alabama wants to find themselves in Pasadena in January, McElroy will need to return back to early season form.

This Rolando McClain led defensive unit has most everyone talking about them being the best in the country.  You look on the field and there is NFL talent everywhere.  On the defensive line you have a sure-thing 1^st round pick, Mount Cody, and a very possible future 1^st round pick, Marcell Dareus.  The linebackers have two 1^st rounders as well in Rolando McClain, and injured Dont’a Hightower (a huge loss for the season).  In the secondary, you could claim that Javier Arenas, Kareem Jackson, and Mark Barron all have first round NFL talent, while safety Justin Woodall is projected in the early to middle rounds of this upcoming draft.  Obviously, the talent is there for the Tide to excel on the field, and they have done nothing to disappoint.  They rank 5^th in country in scoring defense (11.4 pts/gm) and 4^th in total yards/game (240.9).  They have carried this team over the past few weeks and you can be sure they will be big factor in Alabama’s remaining games.

Texas:

Texas had a wild 2008 campaign that ended with them defeating Ohio State in the final seconds of the Fiesta Bowl.  Most Longhorn fans felt they should have been in the National Championship game instead of Oklahoma, considering they each had one loss and Texas beat Oklahoma during the regular season.  They sported a run-and-gun offense last year, which allowed their quarterback Colt McCoy to put up numbers that were impressive enough to get him to New York for the Heisman ceremony.  They had a solid defense led by a heavy pass rush, but lost several key players to the NFL draft (Orakpo, Miller).

Everyone expected to see the same dominant Texas offense that blew up stat sheets in 2008.  They lead the country in pts/game (41.9), but they haven’t proved much of anything.   They have looked sloppy at times and rely way too much on McCoy.  It is a two-man show out there on offense between McCoy and Shipley, and the running game is just about non-existent.  The one good defense Texas has played all year (Oklahoma) they were held to a measly 16 points, and if you watched the game you would agree with my belief that they would’ve gotten scrubbed had Sam Bradford not hurt his shoulder again.  This Texas offense lacks the versatility and playmakers of years past.  McCoy will need some skill players to step up their role in the offense if he wants to win a championship.

On defense Texas is allowing only 13.6 pts/gm, which ranks 9^th in the country.  This is extremely impressive to me because they have played some really good offenses in Texas Tech, Oklahoma (still a productive offense without Bradford), and Missouri.  The most astonishing stat to me was that they only give up an average of 42.7 rushing yards per game.  That is best in the country by more than 20 yards (Alabama 64.9 yds/gm).  Teams just cannot get the run going against the Longhorns and it has made it extremely difficult to move the football.  Oklahoma continually tried to run the ball with Bradford out of the game, but they were denied time and time again (-16 rush yards).  Texas ranks 33^rd in the country in pass defense (194.3), but that number is a bit inflated as a result of teams usually playing from behind against the Longhorns and looking to the air more than usual.

Verdict?

I think you could make a case for either of the two SEC teams (Florida and Alabama) as being the best in the country.  Texas not being under consideration is a product of their weak schedule, and the vulnerability they showed against Oklahoma.  As mentioned previously, I feel that if Sam Bradford stays in that game the result would have been different.  In my opinion, Alabama was unquestionably the best team in the country through the first 5 games of the season.  The offense was explosive with a characteristic that has been unique to Tide offensive units of the past, unpredictability.  They were keeping defenses on their heels with a balanced passing and rushing attack.  The last three games have led many, and rightfully so, to question just how capable the Alabama passing game is.  I think it is vital that they get back to where they were earlier in the season.  For this reason (and it hurts to say it), I am giving the edge to Florida at this point in the season.  Both Alabama and Florida have proved they have suffocating defenses that can win any game for them.  The X-factor here is the quarterback position.  Greg McElroy has not proven that he can lead his team down the field with the game on the line.  Not saying that he is incapable of doing so, just that he hasn’t been presented with that situation so it would be interesting to see how he would respond.  Tim Tebow, on the other hand, won the Heisman Trophy 2 years ago and has captained his team to more than a few game winning drives.  I know he hasn’t been playing that well as of late, but we all know what he and this Florida Gator offense is capable of.  The expected “semifinal” rematch of Florida and Alabama in the SEC Championship Game could be a special one, maybe even more so than last year.

-mfb

Appetizer

UNC (+10 first half) at Virginia Tech

The tar heels are coming off a tough loss to FSU, where their previously stifling defense managed to yield 30 points to a previously struggling FSU offense. In that game Christian Ponder played lights out and lit up the UNC secondary. Tonight will be a different story. Butch Davis will have his team prepared coming off a tough loss, and they are playing a team in VT that does most of their damage on the ground and with their defense. Ten points is way too much for the first half, and probably even the game. Even with the FSU debacle, UNC is still holding its opponents to 16 points per game and less than 65 yards on the ground.  This game will be close, especially in the first half, and VT will end up pulling away in the fourth quarter.

Take UNC plus the ten in the first half - rw

All Treat, No Tricks

World Series Preview

What a treat. The two best teams in baseball meet in late October and into November to determine it all. The defending champs roll in with stars like Rollins, Utley, Ibanez, Victorino, Werth, and Howard. The “Evil Empire” returns with its’ star-studded lineup of Jeter, Rodriguez, Texeira, Matsui, and Posada. With these two insane lineups and great ball clubs, baseball fans can only pray this thing goes seven.

I have not been this excited about baseball since 2001 when Curt Schilling and Roger Clemens faced each other in game 7 of the World Series with Randy Johnson out-dueling Mariano Rivera the last few innings to get the win for the D’Backs. For the first time since 2001, the two best teams are actually in the fall classic. The best part about the entire situation though is the fact that we could see a match-up of Cliff Lee vs. C.C. Sabathia three times throughout this series in games 1,4, and (cross your fingers) 7.

The two former teammates reunite again on the game’s biggest stage to face some of the best hitters in baseball. The two former Cy Young winners will likely face each other three times this series and I have a good feeling that whoever can win two of those, will be champion.

In four appearances this postseason, Sabathia is 3-0 with a 1.09 ERA and has recorded 20 strikeouts. Lee has been just as brilliant if not better going 2-0 in his four starts with 24 strikeouts and an ERA of 0.68. There will be a lot of runs in this series, but not in these games. When these two square off, it will probably be a fight between the two clubs to see who can manufacture and squeeze out one more run than the other.

I would love to sit here and go on about Sabathia and Lee all day, but there will be other games with other pitchers. For instance, game 2, for me at least, will be the most intriguing game to watch. I am just dying to see Pedro back in the Bronx, pitching in front of a crowd that hates and respects him at the same time. The last time we saw Pedro at Yankee Stadium was when he was taken out of Game 7 after being left in one inning too long by manager Grady Little, only to go the bench and watch Aaron “bleepin” Boone take Tim Wakefield yard in extra innings and send the Yankees to the Series. Pedro will be out for revenge and it will be great to see one of the biggest competitors in sports history on this stage once again.

This series figures to be half slugfest half pitcher's duel. What more could you ask for? Every other night we get too see two Cy Young winners battle it out. Better yet, in between those pitching gems, we get to see the best hitters in baseball tee off at what may now be the best hitters park in baseball in Yankee Stadium. My prediction is that this one will come down to the bullpens. Lee and Sabathia will go deep into games so look for closers Brad Lidge and Mariano Rivera to be the difference makers. I like Rivera and the Yankees though when it is all said and done. Rivera’s cut fastball, which is still the best pitch in the game, will be extra deadly against a left-handed heavy Phillies lineup who has never seen it before.

This series just flat out has it all. 4 MVP’s (likely 5 if Tex wins this year), 3 Cy Young’s, the best closer in baseball, the shakiest closer in baseball, and most importantly of all, the New York Yankees. The Fall Classic is classic once again and baseball and  general sports fans alike are in for a real treat over the next ten days.

-scf

                  

2009-10 NBA Preview

Why You Should Care

With most of CTS’ readers being centered in the south, most of y’all do not care too much about pro basketball until the playoffs, and even then the playoffs tend to drag on a bit. The majority of y’all, even then, are focused on the football season three months away or even a recruiting class who has not even begun practice for their senior season of high school. Well football fans, there are plenty of reasons to pay attention to the NBA this season. The NBA will be as competitive as ever this year with both conferences stacked at the top with talent.

During the off-season, the rich got even richer and this season the NBA has six teams, three in each conference that can legitimately win the championship. In the Eastern Conference it will be a season long battle between the Orlando Magic, the Boston Celtics, and the Cleveland Cavaliers for home-court advantage in the East.

All three organizations in the off-season made moves to improve teams that had all just recently made it deep into the playoffs. The Orlando Magic lost Hedo Turkoglu to Toronto via free agency but they were able to replace him with Vince Carter. While the addition of Carter makes the Magic a more entertaining team to watch, I do not think this makes them a better team than they were last year. Turkoglu played a huge part in the Magic’s run to the Finals and will be missed. Although Turkoglu’s in Canada, the Magic still have title aspirations due in large part to point guard Jameer Nelson returning from an injury that sidelined him for most of last season. Nelson, teamed with Carter and Rashard Lewis on the perimeter will be a deadly trio from downtown with defensive player of the year Dwight Howard setting up shop down low.

The Cavaliers made the largest addition, literally, of the off-season with their addition of Shaquille O’Neal. This was a move made to add veteran leadership and some low post offense to the Cavs, who had trouble finding other scorers besides LeBron in their disappointing Eastern Conference Finals loss to the Magic. The defense will be there all season long for the Cavs and if Mo Williams and Delonte West can play to their potential, this team will be tough come June.

Maybe the best team in the East this year is the Boston Celtics. Kevin Garnett returns from an injury that kept him on the bench throughout the playoffs and the addition of Rasheed Wallace gives Boston the depth on the bench they have lacked. Now with Wallace, Glen Davis, Eddie House, and newly acquired Marquis Daniels all on the Boston bench, this team can wear out their opponents and let their stars take over at the end of games. If Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo continue their stellar play, this is the team to beat in the East.

The West has five teams that will contend for home-court advantage but probably only two real contenders come playoff time. The Dallas Mavericks added Drew Gooden and Shawn Marion to a team that made it to the second round last year. The Denver Nuggets will be exciting again this year with point guard Chauncey Billups leading a flashy bunch of youngsters in Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, and Chris “Birdman” Anderson. My surprise team of the 09-10 NBA season is the Portland Trail Blazers. They have one of the best players in the game in Brandon Roy and an exciting, high-flying youngster in Rudy Fernandez. These two paired up with an improved Greg Oden are sure to blaze a trail out west this season.

While the Mavericks, Nuggets, Trail Blazers, and even the Houston Rockets with the addition of Trevor Ariza and return of T-Mac, will be fun to watch the two real “contenders” are the San Antonio Spurs and the Los Angeles Lakers. The Spurs, no matter how long they stay together, will always be contenders when they have Greg Popovich as their coach and Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan, and Tony Parker on their team. Now, with the additions of Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess in the off-season, this team poses a serious challenge to the defending champion Lakers.

Speaking of the Lakers, this is the team to beat in the NBA this year. What more could you ask for? Veteran leadership? Check. Talented scorers? Check. Big men who can score, rebound, and play defense? Check. Shutdown defender? Check. Oh and one more thing – the best coach ever, yep they have that too. The Lakers won fairly easily last year, and with the addition of the "shutdown" defender (Ron Artest) and the improvement, maturity and health of Andrew Bynum, watch out west. 

The entire season will be exciting this year because the significance of home court advantage is astronomical. Remember the NBA stands for “Nothing But Action.”

-scf

Murphy's Law

As it applies to predicting football games.

For those not familiar with Murphy's Law, it states "anything that can go wrong will go wrong."CTS had a successful weekend, managing to go 6-4-1, even after a strange turn of events at the end of the early slate of NFL games.

After a brilliant Saturday with 3 blowouts (GT, TCU, and the AU/LSU under) and our only loss coming in OT, CTS felt great going into Sunday with a 4-1 mark under our belt. With 5 minutes to go in all of our morning games, it appeared CTS would enjoy a 4-0 performance to start off the day. The Colts and the Packers covered easily and the Vikings and Texans were well on their way. 

Now back to Murphy's Law. The Texans managed to push, winning 24-21, after being up 21-0 at halftime. In the last six minutes, The Vikings allowed two defensive touchdowns, one on a pass completely muffed by the normally sure-handed Chester Taylor inside the Pittsburgh 20. So instead of scoring a touchdown to seal the win and easily cover, the Vikings turn the ball over and fail to tackle the not-so agile Keyaron Fox before he scores a touchdown, which not only seals the game for the Steelers, but covers the spread.

The afternoon was a different story. The Bears didn't show up and the Bengals played by far their best game of the season. This was the surprise game of the week, considering that the Bengals were handled by the Texans last week, and the Bears have showed flashes of brilliance this year. Hindsight is always 20/20, and maybe it wasn't a great idea to pick the under with such a high-scoring team involved like the Saints. We didn't think the Dolphins would be able to score more than 20 while keeping the ball on the ground, and certainly didn't expect 14 points to be posted from the defensive side of the ball. 

All that could go wrong did go wrong, yet CTS had a winning weekend and is still over 65% for the year. Thanks for reading and feel free to comment or email us with any questions or concerns. 

-rw

CTS Pickin' Winners On the Reg

(CTS 13-6 YTD--mfb 5-2; scf 6-3; rw 2-1)

**CTS has more picks up this week than usual. Also email us by Sunday morning at CoverinTheSpread@gmail.com, to see if we add another. We are monitoring the weather for a certain game.

NCAA

Clemson at Miami  (-4)

Miami has played very well this year, with their only loss coming at Virginia Tech.  This team relies heavily on quarterback Jacory Harris.  In the one loss, Harris was 9/25 for 150 yards and an interception, well below his season average of 253 yds/game.  Clemson comes in with a pass defense that only gives up 147 yds/game, but they haven’t seen anything like this Miami offense.  I see Harris having a solid game and the Canes getting it done at home in a big ACC matchup.

Take Miami Minus the Points -mfb

 

Georgia Tech (-5) at Virginia

Georgia Tech is coming off a huge win at home against a top-5 team in the Virginia Tech Hokies.  No ACC team has showed any real progress in stopping Paul Johnson’s option offense.  Virginia has won their last 3 after an 0-3 start, but the victories were against lower tier opponents (Maryland, Indiana, and North Carolina).  They don’t have the weapons to hang with this disciplined Georgia Tech team and Charlottesville isn’t exactly Death Valley.

Take Georgia Tech Minus the Points - mfb

 

Iowa (+1.5) at Michigan State

Iowa has established itself as the team to beat in the Big 10.  They travel to MSU this weekend with a chance to start 8-0 for the first time ever.  I have had my doubts about the Hawkeyes, but they always seem to find a way to win.  They have been consistent on offense and stingy on defense.  You would think home field would play a large role in this game in favor of Michigan State, but Central Michigan found a way to win in East Lansing earlier this year.  Iowa will grind out another victory on the road.

Take Iowa plus the Points –mfb

 

Auburn at LSU, O/U 52.5

I thought I misread this line earlier in the week when it was at 49.5. Now it has moved up? Really? Auburn has averaged 18.5 their last two games against Arkansas and Kentucky, and now they have to play a night game in Death Valley against a defense that is as talented as any in the country. LSU will try to dominate the game on the ground with Williams and Scott. Over the last two games LSU has only managed 26 points and has averaged 23 the whole year. LSU also only managed to put up 23 against an atrocious UGA defense. This is my favorite pick of the year thus far.

Take the under –rw

 

TCU (-2.5) at BYU

TCU is undefeated and coming off a 44-6 victory over Colorado State. While Colorado St. is nothing to brag about, TCU’s resume` does include a road win at Clemson less than a month ago. BYU’s team is built around their high-powered offense trying to win a track meet against the opponent. That will be tough to do this week when the nation’s third ranked defense comes to town. TCU will pound the rock all game and when third down arrives, they should be able to attack BYU’s number 93 ranked pass defense with success. I like Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs to stay undefeated and win 33-24.

Take TCU minus the points – rw/scf

 

NFL

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins O/U (47)

The Miami Dolphins are coming off a bye and sat at home last Sunday to watch Drew Brees and co. put up 48 points against the Giants. Miami’s gameplan will be centered on keeping Drew Brees off the field and keeping the score as low as possible. Look for the wildcat to be in full force as weather could be shaky in south Florida Sunday afternoon. Also keep in mind that Payton is a product of Parcells and has also been on the same staff as Tony Sparano. Can’t you just picture Tony and Bill kickin’ back during the bye week and coming up with ways to slow their protégé’s offense? The Saints will win but it won’t be flashy.

Take the under -scf

 

Indianapolis Colts (-14) at St.Louis Rams

Peyton Manning is on his way to his fourth MVP and the Colts are coming off a bye looking to whip up on the hapless Rams. The Rams are averaging only 9 points a game this season and Bob Sanders is making his debut for the Colts. The Rams have no passing game whatsoever and their receiving core is a who’s who of youngsters including newly acquired Brandon Gibson, who has zero catches in his career, and Danny Amendola, the white kid who got cut off HBO’s Hard Knocks with the Dallas Cowboys a year ago. The Colts have won seven straight road games and the Rams have lost their only two home games this season by a total of 49 points. Lastly, if and when the Colts get a lead, lookout for Freeney and co. to add insurmountable pressure and the game could get ugly fast. Need I go on?

Take the Colts minus the points - scf

 

Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

There is no scientific explanation for this one. You have Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson on offense. You have Jared Allen, Antoine Winfield, and two plugs up the middle in Kevin Williams and Pat Williams on defense. You are 6-0 and getting 4+ points. This is going to be such a great game but no way can I pick against an undefeated team in late October getting more than 4 points.

Take the Vikings plus the points -scf

 

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3)

The Houston Texans are coming off an impressive 28-17 win at Cincinnati in which they held the NFL’s leading rusher Cedric Benson to a season low 44 yards. The 49ers lost their previous game at home to the Falcons by 5 touchdowns and their 20^th ranked pass defense will have a hard time slowing down a hot Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson at home. Frank Gore is returning for the 49ers but the Texans are coming off their best three game stretch against the run in team history. Michael Crabtree makes his debut for the 49ers but don’t hold your breath listening for his name to be called. I like the Texans 28-21.

Take the Texans minus the points -scf

 

Chicago Bears (+1) at Cincinnati Bengals

Cedric Benson is coming off his worst outing of the year and is facing the Bears third ranked rush defense that held Michael Turner to just 30 yards on 13 carries last week. The Bengals suffered a huge loss last week when, at the time, NFL sack leader Antwan Odom ruptured his Achilles and is now done for the season. Jay Cutler is totally different QB when he has time to throw (i.e. Packers game vs. Lions game) and the absence of Odom will help him pick apart Mike Zimmer’s defense. I like the Bears by 6.

Take “da bears” plus the 1 -scf

 

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns

This line is moving!  Bodog had the line at (-7) and just removed the game. Jump on this as soon as you can before it climbs higher. The reason for the move is multiple players for the Browns have the flu. Well, maybe they have had the flu all year. Cleveland has only passed for more than 200 yards once this year, and no one is buying into garbage Mangini. Look for Aaron Rodgers to have a big day coming off a thumping of the Lions last week.

Take the Pack minus the points -rw