CTS Pickin' Winners On the Reg

(CTS 13-6 YTD--mfb 5-2; scf 6-3; rw 2-1)

**CTS has more picks up this week than usual. Also email us by Sunday morning at CoverinTheSpread@gmail.com, to see if we add another. We are monitoring the weather for a certain game.

NCAA

Clemson at Miami  (-4)

Miami has played very well this year, with their only loss coming at Virginia Tech.  This team relies heavily on quarterback Jacory Harris.  In the one loss, Harris was 9/25 for 150 yards and an interception, well below his season average of 253 yds/game.  Clemson comes in with a pass defense that only gives up 147 yds/game, but they haven’t seen anything like this Miami offense.  I see Harris having a solid game and the Canes getting it done at home in a big ACC matchup.

Take Miami Minus the Points -mfb

 

Georgia Tech (-5) at Virginia

Georgia Tech is coming off a huge win at home against a top-5 team in the Virginia Tech Hokies.  No ACC team has showed any real progress in stopping Paul Johnson’s option offense.  Virginia has won their last 3 after an 0-3 start, but the victories were against lower tier opponents (Maryland, Indiana, and North Carolina).  They don’t have the weapons to hang with this disciplined Georgia Tech team and Charlottesville isn’t exactly Death Valley.

Take Georgia Tech Minus the Points - mfb

 

Iowa (+1.5) at Michigan State

Iowa has established itself as the team to beat in the Big 10.  They travel to MSU this weekend with a chance to start 8-0 for the first time ever.  I have had my doubts about the Hawkeyes, but they always seem to find a way to win.  They have been consistent on offense and stingy on defense.  You would think home field would play a large role in this game in favor of Michigan State, but Central Michigan found a way to win in East Lansing earlier this year.  Iowa will grind out another victory on the road.

Take Iowa plus the Points –mfb

 

Auburn at LSU, O/U 52.5

I thought I misread this line earlier in the week when it was at 49.5. Now it has moved up? Really? Auburn has averaged 18.5 their last two games against Arkansas and Kentucky, and now they have to play a night game in Death Valley against a defense that is as talented as any in the country. LSU will try to dominate the game on the ground with Williams and Scott. Over the last two games LSU has only managed 26 points and has averaged 23 the whole year. LSU also only managed to put up 23 against an atrocious UGA defense. This is my favorite pick of the year thus far.

Take the under –rw

 

TCU (-2.5) at BYU

TCU is undefeated and coming off a 44-6 victory over Colorado State. While Colorado St. is nothing to brag about, TCU’s resume` does include a road win at Clemson less than a month ago. BYU’s team is built around their high-powered offense trying to win a track meet against the opponent. That will be tough to do this week when the nation’s third ranked defense comes to town. TCU will pound the rock all game and when third down arrives, they should be able to attack BYU’s number 93 ranked pass defense with success. I like Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs to stay undefeated and win 33-24.

Take TCU minus the points – rw/scf

 

NFL

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins O/U (47)

The Miami Dolphins are coming off a bye and sat at home last Sunday to watch Drew Brees and co. put up 48 points against the Giants. Miami’s gameplan will be centered on keeping Drew Brees off the field and keeping the score as low as possible. Look for the wildcat to be in full force as weather could be shaky in south Florida Sunday afternoon. Also keep in mind that Payton is a product of Parcells and has also been on the same staff as Tony Sparano. Can’t you just picture Tony and Bill kickin’ back during the bye week and coming up with ways to slow their protégé’s offense? The Saints will win but it won’t be flashy.

Take the under -scf

 

Indianapolis Colts (-14) at St.Louis Rams

Peyton Manning is on his way to his fourth MVP and the Colts are coming off a bye looking to whip up on the hapless Rams. The Rams are averaging only 9 points a game this season and Bob Sanders is making his debut for the Colts. The Rams have no passing game whatsoever and their receiving core is a who’s who of youngsters including newly acquired Brandon Gibson, who has zero catches in his career, and Danny Amendola, the white kid who got cut off HBO’s Hard Knocks with the Dallas Cowboys a year ago. The Colts have won seven straight road games and the Rams have lost their only two home games this season by a total of 49 points. Lastly, if and when the Colts get a lead, lookout for Freeney and co. to add insurmountable pressure and the game could get ugly fast. Need I go on?

Take the Colts minus the points - scf

 

Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

There is no scientific explanation for this one. You have Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson on offense. You have Jared Allen, Antoine Winfield, and two plugs up the middle in Kevin Williams and Pat Williams on defense. You are 6-0 and getting 4+ points. This is going to be such a great game but no way can I pick against an undefeated team in late October getting more than 4 points.

Take the Vikings plus the points -scf

 

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3)

The Houston Texans are coming off an impressive 28-17 win at Cincinnati in which they held the NFL’s leading rusher Cedric Benson to a season low 44 yards. The 49ers lost their previous game at home to the Falcons by 5 touchdowns and their 20^th ranked pass defense will have a hard time slowing down a hot Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson at home. Frank Gore is returning for the 49ers but the Texans are coming off their best three game stretch against the run in team history. Michael Crabtree makes his debut for the 49ers but don’t hold your breath listening for his name to be called. I like the Texans 28-21.

Take the Texans minus the points -scf

 

Chicago Bears (+1) at Cincinnati Bengals

Cedric Benson is coming off his worst outing of the year and is facing the Bears third ranked rush defense that held Michael Turner to just 30 yards on 13 carries last week. The Bengals suffered a huge loss last week when, at the time, NFL sack leader Antwan Odom ruptured his Achilles and is now done for the season. Jay Cutler is totally different QB when he has time to throw (i.e. Packers game vs. Lions game) and the absence of Odom will help him pick apart Mike Zimmer’s defense. I like the Bears by 6.

Take “da bears” plus the 1 -scf

 

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns

This line is moving!  Bodog had the line at (-7) and just removed the game. Jump on this as soon as you can before it climbs higher. The reason for the move is multiple players for the Browns have the flu. Well, maybe they have had the flu all year. Cleveland has only passed for more than 200 yards once this year, and no one is buying into garbage Mangini. Look for Aaron Rodgers to have a big day coming off a thumping of the Lions last week.

Take the Pack minus the points -rw