The Big 3, Who Should Be #1?
Over the past few weeks there has been much debate over who the best college football team is in 2009. Most believe that it would be between the top 3 teams in the nation: Florida, Alabama, and Texas. You could make an argument for Iowa, USC, Boise St, TCU, or Cincinnati, but in my mind it is between the 3 teams that control their own destiny. In order to properly discuss who should be #1, a detailed analysis must be done on what each team (Florida, Alabama, and Texas) has accomplished to this point.
Florida:
Florida came into this season with the highest of expectations. People were saying they would turn out to be one of the greatest college football teams ever, along with the Nebraska teams in ’71 and ’95 and Miami in ’01. And to be honest I didn’t disagree. Lets take a look at what we knew about the Gators coming into the season: (1) Tim Tebow still plays there, (2) They return every player from their two-deep on a defense that ranked 9th in the country last year, and (3) Tim Tebow still plays there. I figured as much media attention as Tebow gets that it would be appropriate to mention him twice. He was the first player to win the Heisman Trophy as a sophomore, and captains what is commonly perceived to be the most explosive offense in college football.
Now I will discuss what we have seen this year from Florida. Although they are undefeated, they have not played up to the “Team of the Century” expectations. Offensively, they look to have a big hole at wide receiver. Tight-End Aaron Hernandez leads the team in receiving, so it appears as though the team is missing Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy a little more than expected. The offense just doesn’t seem to have the same dominant swagger as they did coming down the stretch last year. Keep in mind they weren’t all that impressive before the Ole Miss loss last year and then the infamous Tebow speech (where he cried on national television) motivated them to humiliate opposing defenses for the rest of the year. Although the season is half over, we could still see a similar event spark the Gators back into 2008 form.
The defense has been nothing short of spectacular to this point. Led by All-American linebacker Brandon Spikes, Florida has held its opponents to a combined 71 points (10.1 pts/game). This is a bit misleading, however, because Florida has competed against only one team that possesses a good offense in Arkansas, and they needed a last second field goal and some help from the officials to win that game. They have played Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, and Mississippi State, which rank 6th, 9th, 10th, and 8th respectively in the SEC in offensive production. Not to mention the mighty offenses of Charleston Southern and Troy. Unless the Gators find some way to open up the vertical passing attack and make this offense multi-dimensional, they may have some serious trouble with some teams standing in between them and Pasadena (@South Carolina, SEC Championship).
Alabama:
Alabama was undefeated during the regular season of 2008, but suffered a close loss to Florida in the SEC Championship, and then an embarrassing defeat to Utah in the Sugar Bowl. Despite the poor 2008 finish, the Tide was ranked #5 in the country to start the year. They were expected to have a conservative offense combined with a suffocating defense.
Alabama had to break in a new starting quarterback (Greg McElroy), running back (Mark Ingram), and three linemen (James Carpenter, William Vlachos, and Barrett Jones) on the offensive side of the ball. We thought that we would see a similar offense to 2008 by focusing on the ground game with a handful of talented running backs and asking the quarterback to simply “manage” the game. The first five weeks of the season showed the Tide in a different form. They were explosive on offense, with McElroy being mentioned along with the Heisman Trophy, an award that has never been won by an Alabama player. The last three weeks, however, the offense has gone back to the run-first, predictable offense that we expected. McElroy has been inconsistent, and it seems as though the coaches have lost a little faith in him to throw the deep ball. They have played three very good defenses in a row, but the offense will need to prove they can perform under more difficult circumstances. A big positive is that Mark Ingram has established himself as one of the top backs in the nation, but if Alabama wants to find themselves in Pasadena in January, McElroy will need to return back to early season form.
This Rolando McClain led defensive unit has most everyone talking about them being the best in the country. You look on the field and there is NFL talent everywhere. On the defensive line you have a sure-thing 1st round pick, Mount Cody, and a very possible future 1st round pick, Marcell Dareus. The linebackers have two 1st rounders as well in Rolando McClain, and injured Dont’a Hightower (a huge loss for the season). In the secondary, you could claim that Javier Arenas, Kareem Jackson, and Mark Barron all have first round NFL talent, while safety Justin Woodall is projected in the early to middle rounds of this upcoming draft. Obviously, the talent is there for the Tide to excel on the field, and they have done nothing to disappoint. They rank 5th in country in scoring defense (11.4 pts/gm) and 4th in total yards/game (240.9). They have carried this team over the past few weeks and you can be sure they will be big factor in Alabama’s remaining games.
Texas:
Texas had a wild 2008 campaign that ended with them defeating Ohio State in the final seconds of the Fiesta Bowl. Most Longhorn fans felt they should have been in the National Championship game instead of Oklahoma, considering they each had one loss and Texas beat Oklahoma during the regular season. They sported a run-and-gun offense last year, which allowed their quarterback Colt McCoy to put up numbers that were impressive enough to get him to New York for the Heisman ceremony. They had a solid defense led by a heavy pass rush, but lost several key players to the NFL draft (Orakpo, Miller).
Everyone expected to see the same dominant Texas offense that blew up stat sheets in 2008. They lead the country in pts/game (41.9), but they haven’t proved much of anything. They have looked sloppy at times and rely way too much on McCoy. It is a two-man show out there on offense between McCoy and Shipley, and the running game is just about non-existent. The one good defense Texas has played all year (Oklahoma) they were held to a measly 16 points, and if you watched the game you would agree with my belief that they would’ve gotten scrubbed had Sam Bradford not hurt his shoulder again. This Texas offense lacks the versatility and playmakers of years past. McCoy will need some skill players to step up their role in the offense if he wants to win a championship.
On defense Texas is allowing only 13.6 pts/gm, which ranks 9th in the country. This is extremely impressive to me because they have played some really good offenses in Texas Tech, Oklahoma (still a productive offense without Bradford), and Missouri. The most astonishing stat to me was that they only give up an average of 42.7 rushing yards per game. That is best in the country by more than 20 yards (Alabama 64.9 yds/gm). Teams just cannot get the run going against the Longhorns and it has made it extremely difficult to move the football. Oklahoma continually tried to run the ball with Bradford out of the game, but they were denied time and time again (-16 rush yards). Texas ranks 33rd in the country in pass defense (194.3), but that number is a bit inflated as a result of teams usually playing from behind against the Longhorns and looking to the air more than usual.
Verdict?
I think you could make a case for either of the two SEC teams (Florida and Alabama) as being the best in the country. Texas not being under consideration is a product of their weak schedule, and the vulnerability they showed against Oklahoma. As mentioned previously, I feel that if Sam Bradford stays in that game the result would have been different. In my opinion, Alabama was unquestionably the best team in the country through the first 5 games of the season. The offense was explosive with a characteristic that has been unique to Tide offensive units of the past, unpredictability. They were keeping defenses on their heels with a balanced passing and rushing attack. The last three games have led many, and rightfully so, to question just how capable the Alabama passing game is. I think it is vital that they get back to where they were earlier in the season. For this reason (and it hurts to say it), I am giving the edge to Florida at this point in the season. Both Alabama and Florida have proved they have suffocating defenses that can win any game for them. The X-factor here is the quarterback position. Greg McElroy has not proven that he can lead his team down the field with the game on the line. Not saying that he is incapable of doing so, just that he hasn’t been presented with that situation so it would be interesting to see how he would respond. Tim Tebow, on the other hand, won the Heisman Trophy 2 years ago and has captained his team to more than a few game winning drives. I know he hasn’t been playing that well as of late, but we all know what he and this Florida Gator offense is capable of. The expected “semifinal” rematch of Florida and Alabama in the SEC Championship Game could be a special one, maybe even more so than last year.
-mfb
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